Questa settimana la domanda di Judy Dempsey di Carneige Europe agli esperti è se l'occidente deve armare l'Ucraina contro Putin.
Ne discutono Fedrica Bindi , Neil Buckley, Samuel Greene, Balázs Jarábik, Denis MacShane, James Sherr, Ulrich Speck e Gianni Riotta.
Il commento di Gianni Riotta:
The trouble with contemporary European thinking is its lack of complexity. In the eurozone crisis, the EU is asking “Should we dump Greece?” or else “Should we erase Greece’s debt?” In Athens, the choice is between “Should we default on our debt?” and “Should we suffer under the heel of the troika?”
When it comes to facing Russian President Vladimir Putin, the black-and-white debate descends into “Should we impose more sanctions on Moscow?” versus “Guys, let’s think energy and exports and forget about Donbas!” Now, the options are to arm Ukraine or not to arm Ukraine. Both questions generate wrong answers.
Leaving Kiev an open city, like the desperate capital immortalized in Mikhail Bulgakov’s masterpiece The White Guard, would simply bolster all of Putin’s worst instincts. Arming Kiev without a strategy would have the same sorry effects.
Ukraine, like Republican Spain in 1936, is not a symbol to be shielded but part of a complex proxy war of attrition—military, diplomatic, economic, geopolitical. The country’s defense indeed needs to be cushioned, but in the context of a sophisticated strategy capable of squeezing Moscow and the ruble while countering the Kremlin’s efforts to buy its way into Eastern Europe (see Hungary).
As for the EU’s response, the union’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, and European Council President Donald Tusk should iron out their differences—and there is a huge gap in their attitudes, worldviews, and even values—before they go public with any decisions. The European Central Bank and its president, Mario Draghi, could play a role.
Then, the West could wisely plug some of Kiev’s worst military gaps while imposing on Ukraine at least some degree of restraint on corruption and inanity. There are no good versus bad solutions, just bad-ish versus very bad ones. Let’s hope the West doesn’t fall into the category of tragic solutions.